The transportation system is the essence of every big city in the world and Toronto is no exception. Toronto’s population has grown almost five times since 1970 and therefore our transportation system too has been demanded to transform according to the changed situation. Yes, there have been some improvements in the past years, but mostly minor, providing only provisional solutions. Finally, a project called The Big Move will completely change the face of the transportation of south Ontario in next years.
The key branch of this overall transportation outlook is MoveOntario2020 plan. In June 2007, this plan has been made public (and just as well may have contributed to liberals’ reelection in October) and now is anticipated by broad public. There are 52 projects, phased till 2020, with the budget around $17.5 billion ($11.5 billion covered by Ontario). 1. GO Transit upgrades and extensions; 2. Major municipal transit expansions; 3. Cross-boundary subway expansions; and 4. Rapid-rail link between Toronto Union Station and Toronto.
Real estate and transit system
The whole functioning of real estate prices is quite tricky science. It’s a very sensitive industry, where a vast number of factors have a smaller or bigger impact. It is not always possible to tell how a particular change affects the local or global economic environment, but we can identify some key factors. One of the most important characteristics is the transportation system.
Most people can imagine themselves how the quality of living is positively affected by the transit system. For illustration, the direct expenses on commuting are smaller, just as indirect expenses such as time consumption. Furthermore, we can mention better accessibility of public facilities or cleaner air and generally healthier environment, while there only a few minor negative short-term aspects.
Many research papers have been written, focusing on the quantification of the effect of different transit system improvements. One of the papers from Tinbergen Institute, dealing with railways, offers a number of 25{7871f4c91f79cbddef59511eb5b9899c6f1d497baab0afdeab5a98ee6e504626} – that is how much the positive effect of railway accesibility on property price can be. Just a simple doubling of public transport frequency increase means average 2.5{7871f4c91f79cbddef59511eb5b9899c6f1d497baab0afdeab5a98ee6e504626} value increase for every property in the region – just one year after the works are completed.
How will MoveOntario influence the real estate in Toronto in the future?
A recent study by REIN, Canada, can indicate the possible outcomes. One of the most important methods of limiting the commuting time is a rail commuting system, which in Toronto is represented by underground and GO Train system.
The positively impacted areas lie in about 800m range from each station, with price maximization in 500m range. Older neighbourhoods or areas with lower average income of citizens are typically influenced more. Specifically, Toronto quarters around Spadina and Younge subway lines extensions are typical examples of the effect on property prices. The GO Train project is more complex, the capacity should be increased in 17 projects including building new lines and/or extending the old ones, and there are 9 more projects concerning the GO Bus Rapid. Analogous impact will be evoked by new light train transit lines, involving Waterfront and Eglinton neighbourhoods.
Conclusion
All the effects of MoveOntario 2020 on real estate market prices are just not possible to be described in one article. The REIN study indicates that the most positively impacted areas will be around Vaughan, Scarborough and Barrie. Coming next should be the regions of Milton, Brambton and Uxbridge&Stoufville, these will also enjoy high influence. These regions can await 10-20{7871f4c91f79cbddef59511eb5b9899c6f1d497baab0afdeab5a98ee6e504626} price rise. Thirdly, actually all Toronto areas lying around the new lines, or old lines with plans for increasing their capacity, are going to profit as well. 1-3 years after finishing the particular project, we can expect the positive effect on property prices.
And we still haven’t described everything. Also the quality of life around the old parts should be improved by the new transit system, as more areas should enjoy easier access for inhabitants. Another positive impact on the real estate prices in the GTA is expected to come from the 175 000 jobs which should be created by MoveOntario. More inhabitants, more investors and more business are going to be attracted with our well working transit system. The whole Toronto will profit from the improved transit system and the property values in the area may grow for the next decades.
